USD to INR Analysis & Commentary

Updated on 15 July 2024

In June 2024, the USD appreciated compared to the INR, with the highest exchange rate of 83.67 INR per USD. The rate is even higher than the yearly average of around 83.240 INR per USD.

Multiple factors could have contributed to the fluctuations in the exchange rate.

The Federal Reserve held its policy meeting in mid-June 2024. The Fed decided to maintain the interest rates in the 5.25% to 5.50% range, similar to previous months. 

However, the Fed hinted at potential rate hikes in the future if inflation does not show signs of improvement. This anticipation led to a gradual strengthening of the USD.

Positive economic reports from the US about increased retail sales hint towards a solid economy which further contributed to the appreciation of the USD. 

However, the INR remained resilient, supported by positive economic indicators from India. Due to this, the USD to INR exchange rate fluctuations were gradual and not significant.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected a GDP growth rate of 7.2% for Q1 FY25. This strong growth forecast supported the INR.

The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for India in June 2024 was reported at 58.8, slightly lower than the expected 59.5 but still indicating a positive outlook for the Indian manufacturing sector. This data provided some support to the INR.

Overall, June 2024 painted a complex picture for the USD/INR exchange rate. While the USD gained appreciation against INR due to strong US economic performance, the Indian Rupee tried to remain resilient, supported by positive economic indicators from India. 

The exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the near future, with the USD potentially strengthening further due to the US economy. In contrast, the Indian economy's growth could also provide support to the INR.

Source:

Livemint

Federal Reserve

Trading Economics

Exchange Rate Analysis for Other Currencies Paired with INR